MAP20130027074Jevtic, PetarMortality surface by means of continuous time cohort models / Petar Jevtic, Elisa Luciano, Elena VignaSumario: We study and calibrate a cohort-based model which captures the characteristics of a mortality surface with a parsimonious, continuous-time factor approach. The model allows for imperfect correlation of the mortality intensity across generations. It is implemented on UK data for the period 19002008. Calibration by means of stochastic search and the Differential Evolution optimization algorithm proves to yield robust and stable parameters. We provide in-sample and out-of-sample, deterministic as well as stochastic forecasts. Calibration confirms that correlation across generations is smaller than oneEn: Insurance : mathematics and economics. - Oxford : Elsevier, 1990- = ISSN 0167-6687. - 01/07/2013 Volumen 53 Número 1 - julio 2013 I. Title.
