Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks
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| Tag | 1 | 2 | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDR | 00000cab a2200000 4500 | ||
| 001 | MAP20130038087 | ||
| 003 | MAP | ||
| 005 | 20140121165204.0 | ||
| 008 | 131115e20131007esp|||p |0|||b|spa d | ||
| 040 | $aMAP$bspa$dMAP | ||
| 084 | $a7 | ||
| 100 | 1 | $0MAPA20130016443$aTonn, Bruce | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | $aEvaluating methods for estimating existential risks$cBruce Tonn |
| 520 | $aResearchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods. | ||
| 650 | 4 | $0MAPA20080591182$aGerencia de riesgos | |
| 650 | 4 | $0MAPA20080591960$aMétodos de análisis | |
| 650 | 4 | $0MAPA20080616106$aCálculo de probabilidades | |
| 650 | 4 | $0MAPA20080579982$aDesarrollo humano | |
| 650 | 4 | $0MAPA20080603038$aPrevención de riesgos | |
| 650 | 4 | $0MAPA20080554286$aEstimación | |
| 773 | 0 | $wMAP20077000345$tRisk analysis : an international journal$dMcLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015$x0272-4332$g07/10/2013 Volumen 33 Número 10 - octubre 2013 , p. 1772-1787 |