| LDR | | | 00000cab a2200000 4500 |
| 001 | | | MAP20150002365 |
| 003 | | | MAP |
| 005 | | | 20150122171254.0 |
| 008 | | | 150113e20141103esp|||p |0|||b|spa d |
| 040 | | | $aMAP$bspa$dMAP |
| 084 | | | $a6 |
| 100 | 1 | | $0MAPA20150002846$aSaeed Ahmadi, Seyed |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | $aCoherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models$b: A modified time-transformation approach$cSeyed Saeed Ahmadi, Johnny Siu-Hang Li |
| 520 | | | $aIn this paper, we propose an alternative approach for forecasting mortality for multiple populations jointly. Our contribution is developed upon the generalized linear models introduced by Renshaw et al., (1996) and Sithole et al., (2000), in which mortality forecasts are generated within the model structure, without the need of additional stochastic processes. To ensure that the resulting forecasts are coherent, a modified time-transformation is developed to stipulate the expected mortality differential between two populations to remain constant when the long-run equilibrium is attained. The model is then further extended to incorporate a structural change, an important property that is observed in the historical mortality data of many national populations. The proposed modeling methods are illustrated with data from two different pairs of populations: (1) Swedish and Danish males; (2) English and Welsh males and U.K. male insured lives. |
| 773 | 0 | | $wMAP20077100574$tInsurance : mathematics and economics$dOxford : Elsevier, 1990-$x0167-6687$g03/11/2014 Volumen 59 Número 1 - noviembre 2014 |
| 856 | | | $yMÁS INFORMACIÓN$umailto:centrodocumentacion@fundacionmapfre.org?subject=Consulta%20de%20una%20publicaci%C3%B3n%20&body=Necesito%20m%C3%A1s%20informaci%C3%B3n%20sobre%20este%20documento%3A%20%0A%0A%5Banote%20aqu%C3%AD%20el%20titulo%20completo%20del%20documento%20del%20que%20desea%20informaci%C3%B3n%20y%20nos%20pondremos%20en%20contacto%20con%20usted%5D%20%0A%0AGracias%20%0A |
