Solvency prediction for property-liability insurance companies : evidence from the financial crisis

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cab a2200000   4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20150004444</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20150209165102.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">150126e20150105esp|||p      |0|||b|spa d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">32</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20150005236</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Rauch, Jannes</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0">
      <subfield code="a">Solvency prediction for property-liability insurance companies</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">: evidence from the financial crisis</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Jannes Rauch, Sabine Wende</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">The financial crisis of 2008 generated sizeable losses in the financial sector around the world. Because regulators are used for predicting insurers' financial strength in order to detect financially distressed firms as early as possible, we question how reliably regulators can forecast financial strength, especially during a financial crisis. We use the company-level data of German property-liability insurers from 2004 to 2011 to examine factors that affect the insurer's regulatory solvency ratio. Furthermore, we develop a prediction model to classify the insurers regarding their financial strength. We show that, in particular, the lagged solvency ratio can be used to predict the future regulatory solvency ratio irrespective of the economic conditions. Thus, our results imply that German regulators are able to detect insurers in financial distress early enough to take appropriate actions to protect policyholders' interests. Our results do not support the adoption of tighter regulations or higher capital requirements.</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080624934</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Seguro de daños patrimoniales</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080552701</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Solvencia</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080590567</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Empresas de seguros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080601324</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Entidades financieras</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080606954</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Legislación de seguros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080579814</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Crisis financiera</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080612023</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Predicciones económicas</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080586294</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Mercado de seguros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="651" ind1=" " ind2="1">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080637996</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Alemania</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20100031322</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Wende, Sabine</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="w">MAP20077100215</subfield>
      <subfield code="t">Geneva papers on risk and insurance : issues and practice</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Geneva : The Geneva Association, 1976-</subfield>
      <subfield code="x">1018-5895</subfield>
      <subfield code="g">05/01/2015 Volumen 40 Número 1 - enero 2015 , p. 47-65</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>