Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Mortality dependence and longevity bond pricing : a dynamic factor copula mortality model with the GAS structure

MAP20170015093

Mortality dependence and longevity bond pricing : a dynamic factor copula mortality model with the GAS structure / Hua Chen, Richard D. MacMinn, Tao Sun

Sumario: Modeling mortality dependence for multiple populations has significant implications for mortality/longevity risk management. A natural way to assess multivariate dependence is to use copula models. The application of copula models in the multipopulation mortality analysis, however, is still in its infancy. In this article, we present a dynamic multipopulation mortality model based on a two-factor copula and capture the time-varying dependence using the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework. Our model is simple and flexible in terms of model specification and is widely applicable to high dimension data. Using the Swiss Re Kortis longevity trend bond as an example, we use our model to estimate the probability distribution of principal reduction and some risk measures such as probability of first loss, conditional expected loss, and expected loss. Due to the similarity in the structure and design of CAT bonds and mortality/ longevity bonds, we borrow CAT bond pricing techniques for mortality/ longevity bond pricing. We find that our pricing model generates par spreads that tre close to the actual spreads of previously issued mortality/ longevity bonds.

En: The Journal of risk and insurance. - Nueva York : The American Risk and Insurance Association, 1964- = ISSN 0022-4367. - 03/04/2017 Volumen 84 Número S1 - abril 2017 , p. 393-415

1. Mortalidad . 2. Modelización mediante cópulas . I. Title.