Brexit : one year later

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      <subfield code="a">Brexit</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Madrid [etc.]</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The UK economy has been remarkably resilient since the vote to leave the EU, but one year on, growth is being increasingly challenged. Inflation is the main culprit as real wage growth has turned negative, squeezing household purchasing power. UK insolvencies have been rising since Q3 of 2016 and are forecast to increase 6% this year and 8% next year. Business failures are expected to be concentrated in consumer-facing sectors like retail and accommodation and those that depend on imported materials like construction. Effects on the rest of Europe have been limited so far, especially as domestic politics have thus far bucked the trend towards populism, easing uncertainty. But we still forecast insolvencies in 2017-2018 to be higher in Europe than if there was no Brexit, particularly in those countries with close economic ties to the UK like Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium.</subfield>
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