Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Claims reserving with a stochastic vector projection

MAP20180016998

Claims reserving with a stochastic vector projection / Luís Portugal, Athanasios A. Pantelous, Hirbod Assa

Sumario: In the last three decades, a variety of stochastic reserving models have been proposed in the general insurance literature mainly using (or reproducing) the well-known Chain-Ladder claims-reserving estimates. In practice, when the data do not satisfy the Chain-Ladder assumptions, high prediction errors might occur. Thus, in this article, a combined methodology is proposed based on the stochastic vector projection method and uses the regression through the origin approach of Murphy, but with heteroscedastic errors instead, and different from those that used by Mack. Furthermore, the Mack distribution-free model appears to have higher prediction errors when compared with the proposed one, particularly, for data sets with increasing (regular) trends. Finally, three empirical examples with irregular and regular data sets illustrate the theoretical findings, and the concepts of best estimate and risk margin are reported

En: North American actuarial journal. - Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997- = ISSN 1092-0277. - 05/03/2018 Tomo 22 Número 1 - 2018 , p. 22-39

1. Modelo estocástico . 2. Matemática del seguro . 3. Modelos predictivos . 4. Modelos estadísticos . 5. Modelos matemáticos . 6. Predicciones estadísticas . 7. Reservas técnicas . I. Pantelous, Athanasios A. . II. Assa, Hirbod . III. Title.