Exiting the lockdowns a tale of four stories

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<title>Exiting the lockdowns a tale of four stories</title>
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<namePart>Dib, Georges</namePart>
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<namePart>Subran, Ludovic</namePart>
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<place>
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<publisher>Euler Hermes</publisher>
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<dateIssued>2020</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">As more countries announce future end dates for lockdowns (France, the UK, Germany), already start curbing them (China, Austria and now Italy and Spain) all of them are outlining their plans to gradually restart activity. Yet one should keep in mind that not all countries are in the same boat; each faces different risks on the eve of deconfining. Starting with initial conditions, it is evident from epidemiological data that few countries are already in a position to start deconfining, i.e. boasting an estimated basic reproduction number R0<1. However, many would like to start relaxing restrictions as early as possible to support their economies. To understand potential exit strategies and the risks associated with them, we group countries over two dimensions that analyze their initial conditions, prior to lifting their lockdowns: the health readiness to deconfine and the economic vulnerability to confinement.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Georges Dib, Ludovic Subran</note>
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<topic>COVID-19</topic>
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<topic>Pandemias</topic>
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<topic>Perspectivas económicas</topic>
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<topic>Sectores económicos</topic>
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<topic>Recesión económica</topic>
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<topic>Interrupción de negocio</topic>
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<title>Allianz Research</title>
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