Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - The Economic outlook darkens

Publication: Zurich : Swiss Re Institute, 2022Physical description: 2 p.Series: (Issue 4/2022)Notes: Sumario: The global economic outlook has worsened, even from our former below-consensus growth and above-consensus inflation forecasts. The ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine raise global uncertainty to a new level. We see higher likelihood of stagflation and recessionary outcomes resulting from the energy price shock, as the shock transitions from moderate to severe. Given its energy dependency on Russia, the immediate impact is larger for the euro area than US. We estimate that the energy price shock alone could lead to at least 1 to 2 percentage points (ppt) lower GDP growth and at least 1 to 2ppt higher inflation in the euro area. While energy is the primary channel today, we expect weaker financial conditions and consumer sentiment to drag on growth soon.Materia / lugar / evento: Economía Crecimiento económico Perspectivas económicas Recesión económica Energía Conflictos armados Guerra Otros autores: Van Der Watt, Diana
Swiss Re Institute
Other categories: 921