Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Dynamic modeling of public and private decision-making for hurricane risk management including insurance, acquisition, and mitigation policy

MAP20220018609

Dynamic modeling of public and private decision-making for hurricane risk management including insurance, acquisition, and mitigation policy / Cen Guo...[et.al.]

Sumario: We develop a computational framework for the stochastic and dynamic modeling of regional natural catastrophe losses with an insurance industry to support government decision-making for hurricane risk management. The analysis captures the temporal changes in the building inventory due to the acquisition (buyouts) of high-risk properties and the vulnerability of the building stock due to retrofit mitigation decisions. The system is comprised of a set of interacting models to (1) simulate hazard events; (2) estimate regional hurricane-induced losses from each hazard event based on an evolving building inventory; (3) capture acquisition offer acceptance, retrofit implementation, and insurance purchase behaviors of homeowners; and (4) represent an insurance market sensitive to demand with strategically interrelated primary insurers. This framework is linked to a simulation-optimization model to optimize decision-making by a government entity whose objective is to minimize region-wide hurricane losses. We examine the effect of different policies on homeowner mitigation, insurance take-up rate, insurer profit, and solvency in a case study using data for eastern North Carolina. Our findings indicate that an approach that coordinates insurance, retrofits, and acquisition of high-risk properties effectively reduces total (uninsured and insured) losses.

En: Risk management & insurance review. - Malden, MA : The American Risk and Insurance Association by Blackwell Publishing, 1999- = ISSN 1098-1616. - 06/06/2022 Tomo 25 Número 2 - 2022 , p. 173-199

1. Gerencia de riesgos . 2. Huracanes . 3. Toma de decisiones . 4. Modelo estocástico .