China's inflation challenge : deflation pressure is easing, but little upside to come

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      <subfield code="a">China's headline CPI returned to growth in February after four months of deflation raised concerns of sustained price falls. We forecast very slight inflation, of an average 0.5%, in 2024, due to higher food prices, stable core inflation and further stimulus, but domestic demand remains weak. Low inflation in China should contribute to global disinflation, primarily via lower export prices. This would support insurance markets but may be controversial among producers in importing countries. Global economic impacts would be more negative if China were to experience a Japan-like stagnation scenario, but we see the likelihood of this as low</subfield>
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