Brazil's sleeping giant : the rapidly increasing threat

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<title>Brazil's sleeping giant</title>
<subTitle>: the rapidly increasing threat</subTitle>
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<name type="personal" usage="primary" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20250003385">
<namePart>Fonseca, Nathalia </namePart>
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<namePart>Seria, Junaid</namePart>
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<namePart>Gallagher Re</namePart>
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<dateIssued>2025</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Brazil is experiencing a sharp shift in the trend of insured losses from natural disasters. When adjusted to 2024 values, the average insured losses between 2000 and 2019 stood at USD 175 million, while the 2020-2024 period saw that figure surge to USD 908 million a more than fivefold increase, largely driven by intensified droughts and extreme rainfall in recent years. At the same time, Brazil faces a significant protection gap. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, recent catastrophic floods led to estimated economic losses of USD 15 billion, yet only USD 1.5 billion was covered by private insurers, revealing a 90% protection gap. This low insurance penetration means that when disasters occur, many businesses are left to shoulder reconstruction costs alone, without financial support. The social consequences are also severe, particularly for vulnerable populations. Those living in informal settlements such as favelas often find themselves trapped in cycles of poverty. The destruction caused by natural catastrophes, compounded by the widening protection gap, slows down economic recovery. As climate change continues to alter the frequency and intensity of these events and as urbanization and coastal migration increase exposure the costs and pressure on infrastructure grow, posing greater risks to communities</abstract>
<tableOfContents displayLabel="Contents">Catastrophe risk in Brazil -- Near-term costs of climate change for Brazil --  Population growth as a climate risk driver -- Tackling the protection gap head on -- The evolving risk modeling landscape -- Counterfactual analysis</tableOfContents>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Nathalia Fonseca, Juanaid Seria</note>
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<topic>Seguro de riesgos extraordinarios</topic>
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<topic>Cambio climático</topic>
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<topic>Catástrofes naturales</topic>
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<topic>Análisis de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Costes económicos</topic>
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<topic>Sequía</topic>
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<topic>Seguro de inundación</topic>
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<topic>Movilidad de poblaciones</topic>
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<geographic>Brasil</geographic>
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