Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Pricing German health insurance products with only few insured persons

Notes: Sumario: This article presents a statistical model, developed under a Bayesian approach, to calculate and forecast claim costs in German health insurance products that have a small number of insured persons. Due to the high volatility observed in these products, the model combines information from several similar insurance plans to jointly estimate the relative inflation of claims and improve the stability of premium calculations. The study analyzes the limitations of traditional methods, proposes a unified framework that integrates scaling procedures, temporal correlations, and exposure-dependent variances, and demonstrates its practical application using real data from a German insurance company. The approach enables more robust estimations and allows for assessing the reliability of the parameters used in pricingRelated records: En: European Actuarial Journal. - Cham, Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2021-2022. - 11/08/2025 Volume 15 - Number 2 - August 2025 Materia / lugar / evento: Seguro de salud Modelos actuariales Volumen de primas Volatilidad en los mercados Siniestralidad Gerencia de riesgos Alemania Otros autores: Springer
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