Global economic outlook and scenarios

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      <subfield code="a">The situation in the Euro area is improving on the political front, but this is probably too late to avoid a recession. Most likely, the region has already entered a twoquarter recession. Prospects for the US economy have improved over the past two months, so it is likely to avoid a recession but will still have weak growth, at best. On the upside, growth could be moderate, rather than negative if energy prices decline and low interest rates have a stronger impact. On the other hand, the economic situation could prove to be much worse than in the current forecast, with a long period of low growth, low inflation and interest rates below 2%</subfield>
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