Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Global economic outlook and scenarios

MAP20150029607

Global economic outlook and scenarios. — Zurich : Swiss Re, 2015

(Economic research & consulting ; 4 september 2015)

Sumario: A strong upward revision to growth in the second quarter has pushed up the estimate for real GDP growth in 2015 to 2.6% from 2.4% last month. Healthy job gains and robust real income growth are boosting consumer spending and strengthening the housing market. Though manufacturing has been somewhat soft recently, the services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remains, at 59, very high, indicating robust growth in the largest sector of the economy. Real GDP growth is forecast to rise from 2.6% this year and to 3.1% in 2016. Given the relatively modest employment report (173,000 job gain), global market turmoil and the lack of Fed guidance on a rate hike in September, the first rate hike is now projected to be in October. The forecast of the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has been revised to be 2.6% by end-2015 and 3.4% by end-2016

1. Economía internacional . 2. Perspectivas económicas . 3. Crisis económica . 4. Datos macroeconómicos . I. Swiss Re . II. Swiss Re economic research & consulting .