US interest rate rise : emerging markets at risk

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<title>US interest rate rise</title>
<subTitle>: emerging markets at risk</subTitle>
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<publisher>Crédito y Caución, Altradius</publisher>
<dateIssued>2015</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The first increase in US interest rates in almost 10 years is not expected to result in a largescale crisis in emerging markets, but there are still risks. The hike also comes at a time when emerging markets are struggling with the slowdown in China, low commodity prices and increasing geopolitical risks. The risk of a sudden shift in market sentiment is therefore present. International investors may pull capital from these markets leading to high interest rates. The most vulnerable countries are Turkey, Indonesia, South Africa and Malaysia. They have high external borrowing requirements and relatively low buffers. Additionally, heavily indebted corporates that are commodity dependent or operating in a shrinking economy might be vulnerable as well. </abstract>
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<title>Economic Research</title>
<partNumber>December 2015</partNumber>
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