Brexit : implications for investors

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      <subfield code="a">Brexit</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The UK has voted to leave the European Union. The exact terms and timing of this exit are unclear. How pension schemes respond to a world that is significantly less certain is of critical importance. The drivers of this world are as much political and diplomatic, as they are economic or financial. We believe scenarios provide the mechanism to translate political pathways into financial ones. We propose four scenarios that pension schemes can use to intuitively engage with current and future events. Our full analysis will also provide our latest views on the probability of each scenario. We have developed a complete set of parameters for these scenarios, based on our capital markets processes. These can be applied to a specific UK pension scheme¡¿s portfolio and balance sheet to estimate their impacts. The appropriate output will be different for defined benefit and defined contribution schemes -for simplicity we have shown example output for the former. We believe this analysis will provide a critical starting point for a discussion of: the possible impact of Brexit for the scheme's funding position; the implications for the sponsor; and the asset allocation and hedging actions that may be appropriate in the face of uncertainty. Your usual contact will be able to discuss this further.</subfield>
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