Homeowners' ROE outlook

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      <subfield code="a">Strong overall growth continues to be the story for Homeowners as direct written premiums increased to $89 billion in 2015 from $86 billion in 2014 for the industry in aggregate. Further, homeowners continues to post promising profitability levels that beg consideration from three perspectives: (1) while the prospective ROE on homeowners declined for the first time since 2011, the line continues to generate returns in excess of its cost of capital in thirtyfour states representing 54 percent of the industry premium, (2) at expected catastrophe loss estimates and given prospective rate levels, we show the industry targeting an underwriting profit at a 94 direct combined ratio, (3) and the question of actual profitability from an accounting perspective offers a third view. Individual state profitability varies considerably given weather driven volatility and the homeowners industry overall is benefiting from an historic dearth of hurricane activity.</subfield>
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