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Counterfactual disaster risk analysis : reimagining history

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
Registro MARC
Tag12Valor
LDR  00000cam a22000004b 4500
001  MAP20170034797
003  MAP
005  20171030172134.0
008  171030s2017 usad|||fst 001 u eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎7
100  ‎$0‎MAPA20120011922‎$a‎Maynard, Trevor
24510‎$a‎Counterfactual disaster risk analysis‎$b‎: reimagining history ‎$c‎Trevor Maynard, Gordon Woo, Junaid Seria
260  ‎$a‎[London]‎$b‎Lloyd's‎$b‎RMS‎$c‎2017
300  ‎$a‎49 p
4900 ‎$a‎Emerging Risk Report 2017
520  ‎$a‎This report explains how a kind of lateral thinking, called counterfactual, can be applied to complement insurers' risk analyzes. It addresses how, in practice, a down counterfactual analysis can be carried out, taking into account events that could have ended in huge disasters, serving as a starting point in the future investigation of counterfactual events and their characteristics. According to Lloyd's, down counterfactual thinking offers multiple advantages to insurers, "The fact that downside counterfactual events are anchored to actual historical experiences helps to explain the complexity of future risks and the uncertainty models to be developed, to get to know them in greater depth and to communicate them in a more coherent way to the members of the boards of directors, the borrowers, the decision makers, the risk managers, etc. "
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591182‎$a‎Gerencia de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080588953‎$a‎Análisis de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080613105‎$a‎Análisis probabilísticos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20100017982‎$a‎Riesgos emergentes
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20170014379‎$a‎Análisis contrafactual del riesgo
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20080035488‎$a‎Woo, Gordon
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20170014355‎$a‎Seria, Junaid
7102 ‎$0‎MAPA20080435387‎$a‎Lloyd's
7102 ‎$0‎MAPA20170014362‎$a‎RMS