Smoothing poisson common factor model for projecting mortality jointly for both sexes

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-8.xsd">
<mods version="3.8">
<titleInfo>
<title>Smoothing poisson common factor model for projecting mortality jointly for both sexes</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20120024595">
<namePart>Li, Jackie</namePart>
<nameIdentifier>MAPA20120024595</nameIdentifier>
</name>
<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20180010538">
<namePart>Lim, Tian Kang</namePart>
<nameIdentifier>MAPA20180010538</nameIdentifier>
</name>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<genre authority="marcgt">periodical</genre>
<originInfo>
<place>
<placeTerm type="code" authority="marccountry">bel</placeTerm>
</place>
<dateIssued encoding="marc">2018</dateIssued>
<issuance>serial</issuance>
</originInfo>
<language>
<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm>
</language>
<physicalDescription>
<form authority="marcform">print</form>
</physicalDescription>
<abstract displayLabel="Summary">We consider a modification to the Poisson common factor model and utilise a generalised linear model (GLM) framework that incorporates a smoothing process and a set of linear constraints. We extend the standard GLM model structure to adopt Lagrange methods and P-splines such that smoothing and constraints are applied simultaneously as the parameters are estimated. Our results on Australian, Canadian and Norwegian data show that this modification results in an improvement in mortality projection in terms of producing more accurate forecasts in the out-of-sample testing. At the same time, projected male-to-female ratio of death rates at each age converges to a constant and the residuals of the models are sufficiently random, indicating that the use of smoothing does not adversely affect the fit of the model. Further, the irregular patterns in the estimates of the age-specific parameters are moderated as a result of smoothing and this model can be used to produce more regular projected life tables for pricing purposes</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">David Pitt, Jackie Li, Tian Kang Lim</note>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20130014791">
<topic>Proyecciones</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080555306">
<topic>Mortalidad</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20160001693">
<topic>Modelos GLM</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20160001679">
<topic>Modelos lineales generalizados</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080586447">
<topic>Modelo estocástico</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080579258">
<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
</subject>
<subject authority="lcshac" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080638146">
<geographic>Australia</geographic>
</subject>
<subject authority="lcshac" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080637712">
<geographic>Canadá</geographic>
</subject>
<subject authority="lcshac" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080637941">
<geographic>Noruega</geographic>
</subject>
<classification authority="">6</classification>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Astin bulletin</title>
</titleInfo>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association</publisher>
</originInfo>
<identifier type="issn">0515-0361</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000420</identifier>
<part>
<text>01/05/2018 Volumen 48 Número 2 - mayo 2018 , p. 509-541</text>
</part>
</relatedItem>
<recordInfo>
<recordContentSource authority="marcorg">MAP</recordContentSource>
<recordCreationDate encoding="marc">180712</recordCreationDate>
<recordChangeDate encoding="iso8601">20180717154925.0</recordChangeDate>
<recordIdentifier source="MAP">MAP20180022517</recordIdentifier>
<languageOfCataloging>
<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">spa</languageTerm>
</languageOfCataloging>
</recordInfo>
</mods>
</modsCollection>