Lloyd's City Risk Index : Middle East and Africa

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      <subfield code="a">The GDP@Risk in the 28 Middle Eastern cities included in the index, is, at $65.78bn, higher than the $31.42bn expected loss in 28 African cities. However, these two regions have similarities in the types of risks they are most exposed to. Interstate conflict is the most costly threat for both: Middle Eastern cities stand to lose $25.46bn to this threat and African cities, $13.28bn. Both regions also have civil conflict in their top three risks, although for this threat, the cost to African cities ($7.88bn) is marginally higher than for those in the Middle East ($7.79bn). Geopolitical and security risks will cost this region more than any other, accounting for $61.44bn or two-thirds of the total for all risks. The economic impact of these threats includes disruptions to production, tourist revenue and investment. Some drivers of civil unrest in this region are similar to those in other regions: the presence of large numbers of young people living in poverty or the fact that 62 per cent of Africans live without access to clean water, sanitation, and other basic services. However, unrest in this region has political roots beyond wealth inequality. In some cities such as Baghdad and Khartoum, war has weakened governance structures. In others, as was seen during the Arab Spring, autocratic but previously functioning states were toppled by large numbers of young people calling for change</subfield>
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