Dynamic principal component regression : application to age-specific mortality forecasting

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<dc:creator>Lin Shang, Han</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2019-09-02</dc:date>
<dc:description xml:lang="es">Sumario: In areas of application, including actuarial science and demography, it is increasingly common to consider a time series of curves; an example of this is age-specific mortality rates observed over a period of years. Given that age can be treated as a discrete or continuous variable, a dimension reduction technique, such as principal component analysis (PCA), is often implemented. However, in the presence of moderate-to-strong temporal dependence, static PCA commonly used for analyzing independent and identically distributed data may not be adequate. As an alternative, we consider a dynamic principal component approach to model temporal dependence in a time series of curves. Inspired by Brillinger's (1974, Time Series: Data Analysis and Theory. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston) theory of dynamic principal components, we introduce a dynamic PCA, which is based on eigen decomposition of estimated long-run covariance. Through a series of empirical applications, we demonstrate the potential improvement of 1-year-ahead point and interval forecast accuracies that the dynamic principal component regression entails when compared with the static counterpart.</dc:description>
<dc:identifier>https://documentacion.fundacionmapfre.org/documentacion/publico/es/bib/169776.do</dc:identifier>
<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
<dc:rights xml:lang="es">InC - http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/</dc:rights>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Mortalidad</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Cálculo actuarial</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Matemática del seguro</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Tablas de mortalidad</dc:subject>
<dc:type xml:lang="es">Artículos y capítulos</dc:type>
<dc:title xml:lang="es">Dynamic principal component regression : application to age-specific mortality forecasting</dc:title>
<dc:relation xml:lang="es">En: Astin bulletin. - Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association = ISSN 0515-0361. - 02/09/2019 Volumen 49 Número 3 - septiembre 2019 , p.619-645</dc:relation>
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