World insurance : the recovery gains pace

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      <subfield code="a">World insurance</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">: the recovery gains pace</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The world economy is recovering strongly from the COVID-19 crisis. The swift deployment of vaccines and large-scale fiscal stimulus, including unprecedented direct transfers to households and businesses, are fuelling a stronger economic bounceback in 2021 than we had projected last year. We forecast historically high global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.8% in 2021 after a 3.7% contraction in 2020. This reflects robust growth in the US (6.5%) and China (8.3%), driven by services consumption.1 However, uncertainty around the emergence of more transmissible COVID-19 variants and the ability of vaccines to keep the pandemic under control suggests that the recovery may be more uneven and protracted than our base- ase forecasts. Insurance demand will benefit from the growth momentum, but a firmer inflation environment is a concern. Policymaking will soon turn to fiscal consolidation, but we believe optimal policy must take a longterm view in areas such as digitisation, climate change and income inequality </subfield>
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