US economic outlook : input and housing costs to hit inflation next while interest rates remain low

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      <subfield code="a">Slowing economic activity indicates peak growth has passed as the economy  returns to more normal output. We maintain our 2021 and 2022 GDP forecasts at 6.0% and 4.0% respectively. High demand, supply disruptions and rising rents Will likely keep monthly inflation above the Fed's 2% target into the fall, but this should balance deflationary pressure from normalizing prices in used autos. A more stable inflation outlook, coupled with expectations of muted long-run growth, are causing long-term interest rates to decline from the spike in Q2. Downside risks are elevated for construction and housing due to supply chain issues and high home valuations</subfield>
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