Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Bridging the gap between risk and uncertainty in insurance

MAP20210028830

Bridging the gap between risk and uncertainty in insurance / Peter Zweifel

Sumario: This contribution evokes Orio Giarini 's courage to think 'outside the box '. It proposesa practica! way to bridge the gap between risk (where probabili ties of occurrence are fully known) and uncertainty (where these probabilities are unknown). However, in the context of insurance, neither extreme applies: the ri sk type of a newly enrolled customer is not fully known, loss di stributions (especially their tails) are difficult to estima.te with sufficient preci sion, the di versification properties of a block of policies acquired from another company can be assessed only to an approximation, and rates of return on investment depend 0 11 dec isions of central banks that cannot be predicted too well. This contri bution revolves around the launch of an innovative insurance product, where the company has a notion of whether a favorable market reception is more likely than an unfavourable one, of the chance of obtaining approval from the regulatory authority and the ri sk of a competitor launching a similar innovation. Linear partial information theory is proposed and appli ed as a particular practical way to systematically exploit the imprec ise information that may exist for ali of these aspects. The decision-making criterion is maxEmin, an intuitive rnodification of the maximin rule known from games against nature

En: Geneva papers on risk and insurance : issues and practice. - Geneva : The Geneva Association, 1976- = ISSN 1018-5895. - 01/04/2021 Volumen 46 Número 2 - abril 2021 , p. 200-213

1. Seguros . 2. Productos de seguros . 3. Gerencia de riesgos . 4. Innovación . I. Título.