Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE

MAP20220011037

Economic Bulletin. — Luxembourg : European Central Bank, 2022

156 p . — (Issue 2 / 2022)

Sumario: The Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a material impact on economic activity and inflation through higher energy and commodity prices, the disruption of international commerce and weaker confidence. The extent of these effects Will depend on how the conflict evolves, on the impact of current sanctions and on possible further measures. The impact of the war has to be assessed in the context of solid underlying conditions for the euro area economy, helped by ample policy support. The recovery of the economy is being boosted by the fading impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Supply bottlenecks have been showing some signs of easing and the labour market has been improving further. In the baseline of the March 2022 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which incorporate a first assessment of the implications of the war in Ukraine, GDP growth has been revised downwards for the near term owing to the conflict. Inflation has continued to surprise on the upside because of unexpectedly high energy costs. Price rises have also become more broadly based. The baseline for inflation in the new staff projections has been revised upwards significantly. Longer-term inflation expectations across a range of measures have re-anchored at the ECB's inflation target. The Governing Council sees it as increasingly likely that inflation will stabilise at its 2% target over the medium term. In alternative scenarios for the economic and financial impact of the war, economic activity could be dampened significantly by a steeper rise in energy and commodity prices and a more severe drag on trade and sentiment. Inflation could be considerably higher in the near term. However, in all scenarios, inflation is still expected to decrease progressively and settle at levels around the 2% inflation target in 2024

1. Economía . 2. Perspectivas económicas . 3. Recuperación económica . 4. Guerra . I. European Central Bank . II. Título.