Beneath the surface : uncovering "true" growth and inflation

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cam a22000004b 4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20220025201</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20220926091442.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">211005s2022    deu||||       ||| ||eng d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">92</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="4">
      <subfield code="a">Beneath the surface</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">: uncovering "true" growth and inflation</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="260" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">Adliswil, Swiss</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">Swiss Re Institute</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">2022</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">2 p</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">Economic insights</subfield>
      <subfield code="v">Issue 21/2022</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">Forecasts for GDP growth or inflation can be skewed by "carry-over effects", in which the prior year's growth dynamics impact the current year's forecast. We see this in our 2022 real GDP forecasts, which make our numbers look higher than the "true" growth this year. In 2023 this effect should reverse for GDP growth  but should intensify for inflation. "True" growth and inflation are key to watch in volatile economic periods like today</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080597641</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Mercados financieros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080551346</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Inflación</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080586294</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Mercado de seguros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080600648</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Crecimiento económico</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="830" ind1=" " ind2="0">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20190002226</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Economic Insights</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>