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Pricing German health insurance products with only few insured persons

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008  260206e20250811che|||p |0|||b|eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
100  ‎$0‎MAPA20260002392‎$a‎Piontkowski, Jens
24510‎$a‎Pricing German health insurance products with only few insured persons‎$c‎Jens Piontkowski
520  ‎$a‎This article presents a statistical model, developed under a Bayesian approach, to calculate and forecast claim costs in German health insurance products that have a small number of insured persons. Due to the high volatility observed in these products, the model combines information from several similar insurance plans to jointly estimate the relative inflation of claims and improve the stability of premium calculations. The study analyzes the limitations of traditional methods, proposes a unified framework that integrates scaling procedures, temporal correlations, and exposure-dependent variances, and demonstrates its practical application using real data from a German insurance company. The approach enables more robust estimations and allows for assessing the reliability of the parameters used in pricing
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080573867‎$a‎Seguro de salud
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080592011‎$a‎Modelos actuariales
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080583279‎$a‎Volumen de primas
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20250000728‎$a‎Volatilidad en los mercados
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080570651‎$a‎Siniestralidad
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591182‎$a‎Gerencia de riesgos
651 1‎$0‎MAPA20080637996‎$a‎Alemania
7102 ‎$0‎MAPA20180008764‎$a‎Springer
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20220007085‎$g‎11/08/2025 Volume 15 - Number 2 - August 2025 ‎$t‎European Actuarial Journal‎$d‎Cham, Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2021-2022