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Estimates for systemic risk measures in the presence of heavy tails

Zou, Lei
Estimates for systemic risk measures in the presence of heavy tails / Lei Zou, Jiangyan Peng and Chenghao Xu
Sumario: The article analyzes systemic risk measures in financial and insurance systems when claims exhibit heavy-tailed behavior. A dynamic multivariate model is introduced that combines Poisson processes for claim arrivals with financial returns modeled through geometric Brownian motion. Precise asymptotic expressions are derived for several systemic risk measures under scenarios of asymptotic dependence and asymptotic independence. The study examines the role of tail dependence and the marginal structure of risks. The theoretical results are validated through numerical studies that assess the accuracy of the estimates
En: European Actuarial Journal. - Cham, Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2021-2022. - 13/04/2026 Número 16 issue 1 - abril 2026 , 26 p.
1. Riesgo sistémico . 2. Colas pesadas . 3. Dependencia . 4. Mercados financieros . 5. Sistemas financieros . 6. Modelos actuariales . I. Peng, Jiangyan . II. Xu, Chenghao . III. Springer . IV. Título.