Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Risk-adjusted mission value : trading off mission risk for mission value

MAP20071505347

Risk-adjusted mission value : trading off mission risk for mission value / Ralph F. Miles Jr

This article develops a decision - theoretic methodology for the risk-adjusted mission value (RAMV) for selecting between alternative missions in the presence of uncertainty in the outcomes of the missions. This methodology permits trading off mission risk for mission value , something that probabilistic risk analysis cannot do unless it explicity incorporates both mission value and risk aversion of the project management. The article also introduces a new interpretation of risk aversion . The methodology is consistent with the elementary management concept concerning division of labor. The methodology is developed within the context of scientific missions , but the methodology is equally applicable to any situation requiring outcome value judgments , probability judgments , and risk aversion judgments by different constituencies

En: Risk analysis : an international journal. - New York and London. - nº 2, April 2004 ; p. 415-424

1. Análisis de riesgos . 2. Métodos de análisis . 3. Toma de decisiones . 4. Modelos probabílisticos . 5. Casos prácticos . 6. Navegación espacial . I. Título. II. Título: Risk analysis : an international journal.