Emerging Europe : the balance of risks is tilted to the downside

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<subTitle>: the balance of risks is tilted to the downside</subTitle>
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<namePart>Stamer, Manfred </namePart>
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<dateIssued>2020</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Economic activity in the Emerging Europe region rebounded markedly in Q3 2020, but new lockdowns wi ll send the region into a double-dip
recession in Q4. Based on data available for nine economies that account for 70% of regional GDP, we estimate Q3 output to have expanded by +6.3% q/q, with the strongest increases seen in Slovakia (+11.7% q/q, after -8.3% in Q2, see Figure 1) and Hungary (+11.3% after -14.6% in Q2). This follows the substantial easing of lockdowns in May-June, as well as the restoring of supply chains and a recovery in the battered automotive sector. However, amid a very strong second wave of Covid-19, the 11 EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-EU-11) have been forced to implement new lockdowns, albeit at varying stringency levels.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Manfred Stamer</note>
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