Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Projecting pension expenditure in Spain : on uncertainty, communication and transparency

MAP20100034361

Projecting pension expenditure in Spain : on uncertainty, communication and transparency / Rafael Doménech and Ángel Melguizo. — Madrid : Servicio de Estudios Económicos BBVA, [2009]

(Working Papers ; nº 0911)

Sumario: In this paper it's suggested a set of indicators about the future performance of the Spanish public pension system and a suitable method of representing their uncertainty, in order to improve the communication to the public opinion about its main future challenges. Spain seems a particularly interesting case in Europe to illustrate the proposals, since the social security system has been in surplus for nine consecutive years, in sharp contrast to the projections made just a decade ago, but, at the same time, most projections foresee for Spain one of the highest increases in public expenditure among EU countries due to ageing. Transparent, credible, public and periodic indicators, which take explicitly into account the uncertainty about future demographic, economic and institutional developments, may contribute to improve the debate on the policies needed to strengthen the pension system

1. Seguridad Social . 2. Sistemas de pensiones . 3. Pensiones . 4. Proyecciones demográficas . 5. Incertidumbre . 6. España . I. Melguizo, Ángel . II. Working papers. nº 0911 . III. Título.