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Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks

 
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<title>Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks</title>
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<namePart>Tonn, Bruce</namePart>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Bruce Tonn</note>
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<topic>Gerencia de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Métodos de análisis</topic>
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<topic>Cálculo de probabilidades</topic>
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<topic>Desarrollo humano</topic>
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<topic>Prevención de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Estimación</topic>
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<title>Risk analysis : an international journal</title>
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<publisher>McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0272-4332</identifier>
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<text>07/10/2013 Volumen 33 Número 10 - octubre 2013 , p. 1772-1787</text>
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