Dynamic frailty count process in insurance : a unified framework for estimation, pricing and forecasting

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<title>Dynamic frailty count process in insurance</title>
<subTitle>: a unified framework for estimation, pricing and forecasting</subTitle>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">We study count processes in insurance, in which the underlying risk factor is time varying and unobservable. The factor follows an autoregressive gamma process, and the resulting model generalizes the static Poisson-Gamma model and allows for closed form expression for the posterior Bayes (linear or nonlinear) premium. Moreover, the estimation and forecasting can be conducted within the same framework in a rather efficient way. An example of automobile insurance pricing illustrates the ability of the model to capture the duration dependent, nonlinear impact of past claims on future ones and the improvement of the Bayes pricing method compared to the linear credibility approach</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Yang Lu</note>
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<topic>Gerencia de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Modelos predictivos</topic>
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<topic>Administración de empresas</topic>
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<topic>Empresas de seguros</topic>
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<topic>Matemática del seguro</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080657963">
<topic>Procesos de medición</topic>
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<title>The Journal of risk and insurance</title>
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<publisher>Nueva York : The American Risk and Insurance Association, 1964-</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0022-4367</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000727</identifier>
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<text>03/12/2018 Volumen 85 Número 4 - diciembre 2018 , p. 1083-1102</text>
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