Italy : a strong setback at the end

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      <subfield code="a">Preliminary GDP in Q4 came out significantly below expectations at -0.3% qoq. If this figure is confirmed, real growth in Italy will have stagnated in 2019. Slipping back again into technical recession can no longer be ruled out. We keep our growth forecast of 0.4% for this year but see cleardownside risks. As for 2021 we stay with  0.8%. Although political uncertainty will persist, its effect of on economic activity should ease. As in the rest of the euro area, private consumption should be the main pillar of growth. On the capital markets, political uncertainty has so far been reflected only in higher sovereign spreads. </subfield>
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