Mind your step

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<title>Mind your step</title>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The idea of a long-term interest rate is embedded in actuarial thought and practice. While market interest rates fluctuate, we think about long-run averages driven by economic fundamentals. Tasks ranging from budgeting for pension contributions to the ultimate forward rate in Solvency II require assessments of long-run average returns. Estimation of long-run returns involves a mix of judgment and, sometimes, intricate quantitative models. Bayesian statistics gives us a framework for combining these elements: the judgment corresponds to a prior distribution of parameters, while the forecast is based on a posterior parameter distribution given some data
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<note type="statement of responsibility">Andrew Smith</note>
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<topic>Teorema de Bayes</topic>
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<topic>Modelos actuariales</topic>
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<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
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<topic>Tasas de interés</topic>
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<topic>Solvencia II</topic>
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<topic>Estadísticas</topic>
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<title>The Actuary : the magazine of the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries</title>
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<publisher>London :  Redactive Publishing, 2019-</publisher>
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<identifier type="local">MAP20200013259</identifier>
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<text>01/01/2020 Número 1 -  January/February 2020 , p. 28-30</text>
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