Mind your step

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      <subfield code="a">Mind your step</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The idea of a long-term interest rate is embedded in actuarial thought and practice. While market interest rates fluctuate, we think about long-run averages driven by economic fundamentals. Tasks ranging from budgeting for pension contributions to the ultimate forward rate in Solvency II require assessments of long-run average returns. Estimation of long-run returns involves a mix of judgment and, sometimes, intricate quantitative models. Bayesian statistics gives us a framework for combining these elements: the judgment corresponds to a prior distribution of parameters, while the forecast is based on a posterior parameter distribution given some data
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      <subfield code="g">01/01/2020 Número 1 -  January/February 2020 , p. 28-30</subfield>
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