Beyond coronavirus : the road ahead for the automotive aftermarket

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      <subfield code="a">Beyond coronavirus</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Every day, healthcare experts and data analysts update models predicting the spread of coronavirus to show the extent of the human tragedythe number of lives lost, patients hospitalized, and unemployed workers. Despite the intense scrutiny, much uncertainty persists. Within the automotive sector, COVID-19 is a massive, once-in-a-lifetime disruption, and the situation is changing rapidly. To gain more clarity about the pandemic's potential impact on the light-vehicle aftermarketencompassing parts, accessories, and tire saleswe reviewed both past and current trends. First, we looked at previous crises to quantify how demand, revenue, and other aftermarket performance indicators typically change during a downturn. We then considered the current global health crisis and created scenarios showing how the aftermarket might evolve this year, as the pandemic abates, and over the longer term, as we enter the next normal. Our analysis focused on challenges unique to the COVID-19 crisis, including a sudden and steep drop in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and customer foot traffic because of physical distancing. These shifts, combined with the potential for a slow economic recovery, mean that aftermarket demand may take years to recover to 2019 levels.</subfield>
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