Emerging markets : the long road to a new normal

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<subTitle>: the long road to a new normal</subTitle>
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<namePart>Sugrue, Dennis</namePart>
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<namePart>Standard & Poor's Insurance Rating Services</namePart>
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<publisher>S&P Global Ratings</publisher>
<dateIssued>2020</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">We now project a deeper GDP decline in 2020 for most emerging market economies, mostly due to the worsening pandemic and a steeper fall in exports. Our forecast is for the average emerging market GDP (excluding China) to contract by 4.7% this year, and then to grow 5.9% in 2021. Better financial conditions and a gradual recovery in key trading partners are supporting the return to growth in emerging markets, but investor sentiment remains fragile. The starting point of each emerging market, the dynamism and adaptability of the private sector, and external factors also matter for recovery prospects.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Dennis Sugrue</note>
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