Turkey : accelerated industrial production in 4Q20

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      <subfield code="a">Industrial Production (IP) grew by 12.1% yoy in unadjusted terms in December (9% yoy if calendar adjusted), resulting in a higher yearly growth rate in 4Q (10.2%) than its 3Q performance (8.5%). Seasonal and calendar adjusted IP (sca) also rose by 1.3% mom, still maintaining a strong momentum by increasing continuously in the last eight months. Hence, despite the downside factors linked to the pandemic, the full year IP growth rate materialized as 2.2% in 2020. On the other hand, retail sales contracted sharply by 4.2% mom in December due to the recent curfew measures as we already observed in our Big Data Consumption indicator. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of 7.8% for 4Q20 (96% info), implying a full year growth of near 2.5% in 2020 and only a slight slow down to 5.3% growth at the start of February (33% of info). Given the current high momentum, the expected deceleration on tighter financial conditions could be delayed in the last period of 1Q and mostly in 2Q. However, ongoing supportive policy measures on global side, favorable base effects and the decline in risk premium could provide buffers. Therefore, assuming no sizable negative shock, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 5% for 2021 with some upside risks taking into account the current information for 1Q21.</subfield>
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