Why does a human die? A structural approach to cohort-wise mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis

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<title>Why does a human die? A structural approach to cohort-wise mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis</title>
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<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20210003080">
<namePart>Minami, Yuki </namePart>
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<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20210003097">
<namePart>Ito, Ryunosuke </namePart>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">We propose a new approach to mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis (SEH). We assume that a human is born with initial energy, which changes stochastically in time and the human dies when the energy vanishes. Then, the time of death is represented by the first hitting time of the survival energy (SE) process to zero. This study assumes that SE follows a timeinhomogeneous diffusion process and defines the mortality function, which is the first hitting time distribution function of the SE process. Although SEH is a fictitious construct, we illustrate that this assumption has the potential to yield a good parametric family of cumulative probability of death, and the parametric family yields surprisingly good predictions for future mortality rates.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Yasutaka Shimizu, Yuki Minami, Ryunosuke Ito</note>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080555306">
<topic>Mortalidad</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080586447">
<topic>Modelo estocástico</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080579258">
<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080588281">
<topic>Teoría de la ruina</topic>
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<title>Astin bulletin</title>
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<publisher>Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0515-0361</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000420</identifier>
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<text>01/01/2021 Volumen 51 Número 1 - enero 2021 , p. 191-219</text>
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