Turbulence after lift-off : global economic and insurance market outlook 2022-23

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      <subfield code="a">The world economy is making a strong recovery from the COVID-19 shock and the outlook is positive. However, peak growth is behind us and this cyclical recovery is not a structural one. We forecast global real economic growth of 5.6% in 2021, 4.1% in 2022 and 3.0% in 2023. The recovery will be uneven, with risks tilted to the downside. Supply-side shocks, including global supply chain issues, labour shortages and energy shortages, may persist, while monetary policy is becoming less accommodative. Inflation is our number one near-term macro risk and we expect it to be elevated for some time, stemming from the same supply-side factors that are constraining growth. Pressure is starting to feed into slower-moving but harder to reverse areas such as rent and wages. We expect these headwinds to weigh on the outlook in 2022 and 2023, making structural healing - the policies that work to reverse the permanent negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy - difficult.</subfield>
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