Modeling lapse rates using machine learning : a comparison between Survival Forests and Cox Proportional Hazards techniques

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cab a2200000   4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20210037337</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20220911185731.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">211230e20211229esp|||p      |0|||b|spa d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">6</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20210037528</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Andrade, Jorge Luis</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0">
      <subfield code="a">Modeling lapse rates using machine learning</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">: a comparison between Survival Forests and Cox Proportional Hazards techniques</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Jorge Luis Andrade, José Luis Valencia</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">This study undertakes a comparative analysis of the performance of machine learning and traditional survival analysis techniques in the insurance industry. The techniques compared are the traditional Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH), Random Survival Forests (RSF) and Conditional Inference Forests (CIF) machine learning models. These techniques are applied in a case study of insurance portfolio of one of Ecuador's largest insurer. This study demonstrates how machine learning techniques perform better in predicting survival function measured by the C-index and Brier Score. It also demonstrates that the predictive contribution of covariates in the RSF model is consistent with the traditional CPH model</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="540" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">La copia digital se distribuye bajo licencia "Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)"</subfield>
      <subfield code="u">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</subfield>
      <subfield code="9">44</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20090041776</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Análisis actuarial</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20170005476</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Machine learning</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080614737</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Modelos de supervivencia</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080594589</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Análisis comparativo</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080583972</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Cartera de seguros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20130017037</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Análisis predictivos</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20210037535</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Valencia, José Luis</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="710" ind1="2" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080454739</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Instituto de Actuarios Españoles</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="w">MAP20070000012</subfield>
      <subfield code="g">29/12/2021 Número 27 -  Epoca 4ª, Año 2021 , p. 161-183</subfield>
      <subfield code="t">Anales del Instituto de Actuarios Españoles : Colegio Profesional</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Madrid : Instituto de Actuarios Españoles, 1943-</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="856" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield>
      <subfield code="w">1113292</subfield>
      <subfield code="y">Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>