Global economic outlook Q3 2022 : rates shock puts the economy on a slower path

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      <subfield code="a">The macro narrative has shifted dramatically since our last quarterly report: four-decade high inflation is the number one issue in many countries. The overriding challenge for central banks is whether they can rein in and re-anchor expectations without causing a recession.
Spending and production data have been softening all year, but employment remains strong and private-sector balance sheets are in reasonably good shape, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.
The balance of risks is clearly on the downside with recession probabilities rising (especially in the U.S.) and the macro effects of Russia-Ukraine conflict persisting.</subfield>
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