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Mortality improvement rates : modeling, parameter uncertainty, and robustness

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008  230613e20230306usa|||p |0|||b|eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20140008735‎$a‎Hunt, Andrew
24500‎$a‎Mortality improvement rates‎$b‎: modeling, parameter uncertainty, and robustness‎$c‎Andrew Hunt, Andrés M. Villegas
520  ‎$a‎Rather than looking at mortality rates directly, a number of recent academic studies have looked at modeling rates of improvement in mortality when making mortality projections. Although relatively new in the academic literature, the use of mortality improvement rates has a long-standing tradition in actuarial practice when allowing for improvements in mortality from standard mortality tables. However, mortality improvement rates are difficult to estimate robustly, and models of them are subject to high levels of parameter uncertainty, because they are derived by dividing one uncertain quantity by another. Despite this, the studies of mortality improvement rates to date have not investigated parameter uncertainty due to the ad hoc methods used to fit the models to historical data. In this study, we adapt the Poisson model for the numbers of deaths at each age and year proposed in Brouhns, Denuit, and Vermunt to model mortality improvement rates
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579258‎$a‎Cálculo actuarial
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080544249‎$a‎Índices
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080599300‎$a‎Tablas de mortalidad
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20090041721‎$a‎Distribución Poisson-Beta
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080578848‎$a‎Análisis de datos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20130017037‎$a‎Análisis predictivos
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20140008742‎$a‎Villegas, Andres M.
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000239‎$g‎06/03/2023 Tomo 27 Número 1 - 2023 , p. 47-73‎$x‎1092-0277‎$t‎North American actuarial journal‎$d‎Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-
85600‎$y‎MÁS INFORMACIÓN‎$u‎ mailto:centrodocumentacion@fundacionmapfre.org?subject=Consulta%20de%20una%20publicaci%C3%B3n%20&body=Necesito%20m%C3%A1s%20informaci%C3%B3n%20sobre%20este%20documento%3A%20%0A%0A%5Banote%20aqu%C3%AD%20el%20titulo%20completo%20del%20documento%20del%20que%20desea%20informaci%C3%B3n%20y%20nos%20pondremos%20en%20contacto%20con%20usted%5D%20%0A%0AGracias%20%0A