Risk environment 2024-2026 : classification and analysis

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      <subfield code="a">Risk environment 2024-2026 : classification and analysis</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Madrid</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Introduction -- Momentum, trends and risks: a consensus view: view of the current moment: the sign of the times and its trends; consensus view of the long-term dynamics that dominate the current context; consensus view of the risks generated by long-term dynamics; evolution and representation of risk perception; subjective assessment of risk dimensions by category -- Risk environment: Analysis of long-term trends and their currency in economic literature; risk analysis 2024-2026; scenario definition -- Impact of geopolitical risk on the insurance industry -- Conclusion</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The preparation of plausible economic forecasts and scenarios depends both on the control of economic logic under normal conditions, and on the understanding of the risk elements that could transform a central vision into a less probable alternative vision with a higher socioeconomic cost. Thus, the conceptualization of risks is an exercise linked to dynamics of a social, economic and political nature, which, in turn, are conditioned by the context they are generated in and are at the mercy of eventual catalysts of change. This report proposes a general conceptual framework that explores common views on these determinants in the process of considering the risk environment, analyzing the socioeconomic risks that would affect the central scenario with greater depth and probability, while exploring the geopolitical risks the world is facing</subfield>
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