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A Minimum variance approach to multivariate linear regression with application to actuarial problems

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LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20260006307
003  MAP
005  20260310165736.0
008  260225e20261215che|||p |0|||b|eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
100  ‎$0‎MAPA20110013387‎$a‎Landsman, Zinoviy
24512‎$a‎A Minimum variance approach to multivariate linear regression with application to actuarial problems‎$c‎Zinoviy Landsman and Udi Makov
520  ‎$a‎Variability is inherent in statistical, actuarial, and economic models, necessitating precise quantification for informed decision-making and risk management. Recently, Landsman and Shushi introduced the Location of Minimum Variance Squared Distance (LVS) risk functional, a novel variance-based measure of variability. We extend LVS to assess variability in regression models commonly used in actuarial analysis, enabling the construction of regression-type predictors in the Minimum Variance Squared Deviation (MVS) sense. We show that when the predicted vector Y follows a symmetric distribution, MVS aligns with the traditional Minimum Expected Squared Deviation (MES) functional. However, for non-symmetric distributions, MVS and MES diverge, with differences influenced by the joint third-moment matrix of distribution P and the covariance matrix of Y. We derive an analytical expression for MVS and explore a hybrid approach combining MVS and MES functionals. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we present two numerical examples: (i) predicting three components of fire lossesbuildings, contents, and profitsand (ii) forecasting returns for six market indices based on the returns of their dominant stocks
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579258‎$a‎Cálculo actuarial
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080604721‎$a‎Análisis multivariante
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20120011137‎$a‎Predicciones estadísticas
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591182‎$a‎Gerencia de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080594633‎$a‎Análisis de varianza
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20140022717‎$a‎Big data
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20110013424‎$a‎Makov, Udi E.
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20220007085‎$g‎15/12/2025 Volume 15 Issue 3 - December 2025 , 22 p.‎$t‎European Actuarial Journal‎$d‎Cham, Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2021-2022