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Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks

Recurso electrónico / electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20130038087
003  MAP
005  20140121165204.0
008  131115e20131007esp|||p |0|||b|spa d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎7
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20130016443‎$a‎Tonn, Bruce
24510‎$a‎Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks‎$c‎Bruce Tonn
520  ‎$a‎Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591182‎$a‎Gerencia de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591960‎$a‎Métodos de análisis
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080616106‎$a‎Cálculo de probabilidades
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579982‎$a‎Desarrollo humano
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080603038‎$a‎Prevención de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080554286‎$a‎Estimación
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000345‎$t‎Risk analysis : an international journal‎$d‎McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015‎$x‎0272-4332‎$g‎07/10/2013 Volumen 33 Número 10 - octubre 2013 , p. 1772-1787