Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Measuring the impact of longevity risk on pension systems : the case of Italy

Notes: Sumario: This article estimates the impact of longevity risk on pension systems by combining the prediction based on a Lee-Carter mortality model with the projected pension payments for different cohorts of retirees. We measure longevity risk by the difference between the upper bound of the total old-age pension expense and its mean estimate. This difference is as high as 4% of annual GDP over the period 20402050. The impact of longevity risk is sizeably reduced, but not fully eliminated, by the introduction of indexation of retirement age to expected life at retirement. Our evidence speaks in favor of a market for longevity risk and calls for a closer scrutiny of the potential redistributive effects of longevity risk.Related records: En: North American actuarial journal. - Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997- = ISSN 1092-0277. - 03/02/2014 Tomo 18 Número 1 - 2014 , p. 87-103Materia / lugar / evento: Longevidad Mortalidad Modelo Lee-Carter Predicciones Matemática del seguro Sistemas de pensiones Italia Otros autores: Favero, Carlo A.
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