Search

Accuracy of long-range actuarial projections of health care costs

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cab a2200000   4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20160022117</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20160817142240.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">160712e20160601usa|||p      |0|||b|eng d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">6</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="100" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20160008838</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Getzen, Thomas E.</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0">
      <subfield code="a">Accuracy of long-range actuarial projections of health care costs</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Thomas E. Getzen</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">The Office of the Actuary, mandated to provide projections of future medical spending for use by the U.S. Medicare and Medicaid programs, publishes forecasts that have been widely used by private firms and government budget officials as a baseline for expected long-run premium trends and to estimate liabilities for retiree health benefits. Although these projections have been made publicly available since 1986, they have not yet been subject to systematic evaluation by an external reviewer. This article develops a method for assessment of both short- and long-run accuracy and applies it to the 17 sets of projections have been made public over the last 25 years.</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080602437</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Matemática del seguro</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080579258</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Cálculo actuarial</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20120011137</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Predicciones estadísticas</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20130012056</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Gastos médicos</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080548100</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Medicaid</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080548117</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Medicare</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080629526</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Presupuestos Generales del Estado</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20120019492</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Tendencias</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20130014791</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Proyecciones</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="651" ind1=" " ind2="1">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080638337</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Estados Unidos</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="w">MAP20077000239</subfield>
      <subfield code="t">North American actuarial journal</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-</subfield>
      <subfield code="x">1092-0277</subfield>
      <subfield code="g">01/06/2016 Tomo 20 Número 2 - 2016 , p. 101-113</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>